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Industry Insights

Bewitched by Inflation: Candy Prices Are Unlikely to Get Sweeter for Shoppers 

By October 27, 2023No Comments
Candy Prices Are Unlikely to Get Sweeter for Shoppers 
Candy Prices Are Unlikely to Get Sweeter for Shoppers 

With Candy prices soaring, Engage3 has taken a dive into the category to understand where shoppers are going to have the biggest shock this Halloween. 

Key Takeaways 

  • Candy prices are up an average of 8.9% year-on-year 
  • The bags of assorted brands of Candy have seen the greatest price increases (+12.5%) 
  • 16.5% of Candy products are on promotion this year, up from 15.0% last year. But the average depth of discount is down. 

As the days grow shorter and the nights darker, so starts the season of pumpkins, costumes, and things that go bump in the night – Halloween. However, perhaps the biggest shock shoppers will get this Spooky Season is when they get to the checkout with their trick or treating candy. 

Candy prices have been soaring as manufacturers are hit with a double whammy of rising Sugar and Cocoa prices. Excessively dry conditions in Asia and wet weather in West Africa have reduced harvests of both crops. These production challenges have meant Candy manufacturers have had no choice but to increase prices.  

Everyday prices of Candy have increased 8.9% y-o-y 

Everyday prices of Candy have risen 8.9% overall since last year with bags of assorted brands of Candy, particularly popular at Halloween, rising above this at an average of 12.5%. Brach’s had the greatest price increase of 13.4% while Private Label brands and Starburst had the lowest prices increases at 4.8% and 5.3% respectively. 

13 of 19 brands had more Candy promotions this year 

To help persuade shoppers to buy Candy, in the face of rising prices, promotions are up this year with an average of 16.5% of Candy on promotion this year, compared to 15.0% last year. Haribo, Sour Patch Kids and YumEarth are 3 of the 6 brands that were promoted less this year. Sweetarts had the greatest increase in promotions y-o-y, up 12.8% to 34.9% of its range on promotion.

Average promotion discount has fallen 0.4% compared to last year

The average depth of discount of these Candy promotions was 21.4%, down from 21.8% in 2022. YumEarth not only had a reduction in the number of promotions, but also had a large decline in average depth of discount from 25.4% to 15.0%. Conversely, Brach’s average discount rose 8.1%, the greatest of the brands analyzed. 

Average promotion discount has fallen 0.4% compared to last year

The Haunting Reality of Rising Candy Prices 

Unfortunately, shoppers are unlikely to find relief, as concerns grow about future supplies. El Niño, a climate phenomenon marked by extreme heat in Asia and reduced rainfall in West Africa, is predicted to adversely affect harvests, leading to further price hikes. Shoppers can anticipate a continued rise in Candy prices, possibly accompanied by more instances of ‘shrinkflation,’ putting additional strain on wallets during the Holiday season and likely extending into Valentine’s Day and Easter next year. 

Click here for more insight into Candy pricing and to see how you performed and learn how Engage3 helps retailers and brands improve their pricing performance and compete more profitably through data science & analytics.