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Industry Insights

Talking Turkey: The Latest on Inflation and Thanksgiving Prices

By December 11, 2023No Comments
Talking Turkey
Talking Turkey

CPG Inflation has dipped and settled at +3% but Engage3 has dived into the intricacies of recent price changes. Effective and Everyday prices had risen marginally over the month but not across all retailers. Turkey prices had taken a 12% fall compared to last year, helping those shoppers celebrating Thanksgiving. We’ve delved into detail to see where prices have fallen the most.

Inflation Snapshot

The numbers reveal a noteworthy rise in both Effective and Everyday prices over the past four weeks, growing by 31 and 20 base points, respectively. Across the retail spectrum, the majority of players experienced an increase in Everyday prices, ranging between 20 and 40 base points. However, some players bucked this overall trajectory and witnessed a decline in effective prices during the same period.

Inflation Snapshot

Department Highlights

Total Non-Edible inflation, over the span of seven weeks, has seen a notable 2% decrease while Edible products has witnessed a 1% decline in inflation during the same period.

Department Highlights

Last year, the poultry aisle faced the tumult of peaking Turkey prices, a consequence of avian influenza impacting both stocks and consumers’ wallets. Fast forward to the present, and the story takes a compelling turn – Turkey prices have plunged by a substantial 12% compared to last year. Delving deeper, the average Effective price of Frozen Turkey has fallen by 6.6% in the last 9 weeks.

Analyzing further, Honeysuckle had a 9.2% drop in effective prices for its Fresh Whole Turkeys. However, it was Frozen Turkey where prices fell the most for both Honeysuckle, Private Label and Butterball, with Honeysuckle’s average Effective price falling 13%.

Channel Shifts

Overall consumer trips are down 1% y-o-y, predominantly due to the Club and Drug channels where consumer product trips are down 1% and 7%, respectively. Dollar and Mass channel trips are still up 6% and 4% since last year.​

Across the board, inflation has experienced a modest decline. Notably, the USA boasts the lowest inflation rate at +3%. In contrast, the United Kingdom grapples with a slightly higher rate at +6%, while France faces a more pronounced challenge with a +7% inflation rate.

Global Trends

Regardless of external market conditions, the right combination of omnichannel competitive intelligence and Pricing Science can help you increase your margin, maintain consistent revenue growth, and increase customer loyalty. 

  • Leverage omnichannel comp monitoring and Machine-learning powered Product Linking to track your product catalog against like-item competitive offerings and respond to competitors’ online and store-level tactics.  
  • Use Price Image to objectively identify the items that most directly influence customer perception, then optimize these items to increase trips and satisfaction while defending margin across the store. 
  • Balance short-term profits with long-term success by optimizing prices toward Price Image and boosting trip frequency and share-of-wallet. 

Click here to request access to the full report and learn how Engage3’s Price Optimization and Competitive Intelligence solutions can help you fuel sustainable growth in any market.