In the past month, concerns about Avian flu have sparked warnings of potential strain on egg supply and prices, particularly in Northern California, which has witnessed substantial losses recently. Though the outbreak’s scale is currently below the levels observed in late 2022 and early 2023, consumers should brace themselves for potential price hikes.
Engage3 has conducted a thorough analysis of egg pricing trends in the US and Canada over the past year to gauge whether we are seeing an impact of the latest outbreaks.
- The Everyday price of eggs fell 7.4% since December 2022 (All types) but the price of just Conventional Eggs fell 40.3% over the same time.
- The pricing dynamics of Conventional eggs serve as a crucial indicator of the market’s response to Avian flu. Since November 2023, Everyday prices have risen by 8.8%, signaling that recent outbreaks are indeed influencing prices.
- Canada’s supply management system has played a role in minimizing volatility in egg prices. Over the past 57 weeks, Canadian egg prices have seen a gradual increase of 2.8%, showcasing a more stable trend compared to the US market.
Everyday Prices of eggs have fallen 7.4% since December 2022 (All Egg Types)
Engage3 can reveal that Everyday prices of eggs have fallen 7.4% and Effective prices (price inclusive of promotions) have fallen by 8.7% since the start of December 2022. This data encompasses all types of eggs, including Conventional, Cage Free and Organic. Overall Everyday prices have not significantly increased over the last 2 months, but Effective prices rose in the most recent week as seasonal promotions ended.
Conventional egg prices rose 8.8% since November 2023, showing Avian Flu is impacting prices
Avian Flu has exerted a more substantial impact on Conventional Eggs, primarily due to the scale and intensity of their production operations. In contrast, Free Range and Organic eggs, with their smaller-scale operations, experience comparatively lower effects. The pricing dynamics of Conventional eggs serve as an indicator to see if there’s an impact from Avian Flu. Despite a 40.3% decrease in Everyday prices since their peak during the week commencing January 8, 2022, there has been an 8.8% price surge since the beginning of November 2023, signaling the tangible influence of Avian Flu on prices.
Organic eggs least affected by Avian with prices only falling 3.8%
Prices of the other egg types peaked later into 2022. Cage Free eggs Everyday pricing peaked in mid-February but is now 15.7% lower, its average Effective price fell slightly more at 16.1%. Organic eggs displayed minimal volatility, with Everyday prices only decreasing by 3.8% since the week commencing January 22, 2022. Free Range eggs and Pasture Raised (Non-Organic) eggs both saw a similar drop in Everyday prices, but the former experienced a more substantial 7.7% reduction in Effective prices.
Canada’s egg supply management led to less volatility in prices
Egg prices in Canada exhibited greater resilience against the disruptions caused by Avian Flu, attributed in part to fewer outbreaks and a longstanding quota-based egg supply system, instead of the free-market approach in the US. This supply management structure contributes to more stable pricing for shoppers.
In summary, the average Everyday price of eggs in Canada has seen a modest 2.8% increase since December 2022, with Effective prices showing a slightly higher rise at 3.2%. Notably, a substantial portion of this increase occurred in July, marked by a 1.7% uptick in Everyday prices throughout the month, also reported by Statistique Canada.
Avian Flu yet to impact egg prices this year, other than Conventional eggs
Examining Conventional eggs, it’s evident that everyday prices have risen since November 2023, marking an 8.8% increase and indicating the influence of Avian Flu on prices. While other types such as Cage Free and Free Range currently show no signs of price increases, historical trends from 2023 suggest a delayed impact compared to Conventional eggs. Engage3 will be closely monitoring the situation and will provide updates if Avian Flu has a more pronounced impact in the future.
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